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August 22, 2005

Podcasts — More imaginary numbers


Last Monday's New York Times featured an interesting small item by Alex Mindlin focusing on how popular podcasts are and how big the phenomenon could conceivably become.

It started this past April when the Pew Internet and American Life Project reported that six million people had listened to podcasts.

Now come two oft–cited research groups with projections for 2010.

Ted Schadler of Forrester Research forecasts that about 30 million people will be podcast users in 2010.

Marc Freedman of the Diffusion Group is even more optimistic: he predicts the number in 2010 will be 56.8 million individuals.

Now, I hate to differ with such estimable analysts but I must say this: both forecasts reflect a very shortsighted view of technology.

Because, Ted and Marc, relatively few people will be listening to podcasts in 2010: not anywhere near the numbers you envision.

Isn't it obvious?

In 2010 people will be watching podcasts.

And you can bet that yours truly — bookofjoeTV, at long last — will be right there on your satellite TV dial.

Count on it.


I just hope I'm a pre–set.

August 22, 2005 at 10:01 AM | Permalink


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"In 2010 people will be watching podcasts."
Isn't this the principle of the good 'old' video recorder? Watching things that already have been played. Funny.

Posted by: Claudio | Aug 22, 2005 10:32:57 AM

I read something yesterday about podcasting that I thought was very interesting..."A survey of over 8,000 American consumers by pollsters CLX has revealed that podcasting is most popular with those over 45, with 21 per cent of those questioned listening to podcasts. This compares to just 13 per cent of 15 to 24-year olds."

I've decided that's why I don't get podcasting - because I'm so young and hip. I have several friends who are enthusiasts, but it just takes too long to judge if a podcast is worth listening to. I can judge if an article is worth reading in three seconds.

I'm not a talk radio fan, though, so maybe that's the difference.

(But you're right about the video component of podcasting, of course. After all, even Apple knows that's coming really soon, with their latest iPods close to ready to go.)

Posted by: Shawn Lea | Aug 22, 2005 10:27:43 AM

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