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December 2, 2007
Prediction: Tim Tebow will never play a down as a pro
What, am I crazy?
The University of Florida quarterback (above) is the odds-on pick to win this year's Heisman Trophy.
And I would vote for him if I had a ballot.
But no one — not Tim Tebow, not Vince Young, not Earl Campbell — can continue to take the physical pounding Tebow (a sophomore) is getting throughout the next two seasons and expect to come out of them without a high chance of incurring a career-ending injury.
Consider that his broken right (non-throwing) hand, incurred during a 5-yard touchdown run on the opening drive of the third quarter of last weekend's game against Florida State, following which he stayed in the game, is only the latest in a series of injuries, including:
• Broken leg in high school (finished the game)
• Bruised right shoulder on October 20, 2007 against Kentucky (stayed in the game, then opted to receive painkilling shots before the next four games)
Yes, he's big and strong (6'3", 235 lbs.), and his 838 yards rushing this year with 22 touchdowns, tying the NCAA record for quarterbacks, are tremendous achievements — but he is taking so many big hits in the process that it's only a matter of time before one puts him down for the count.
I'd make him stop running unless flushed from the pocket but I doubt he'd listen — and his coach, Urban Meyer, deep down hopes Tebow never changes.
At least, not until he finishes his college career.
December 2, 2007 at 04:01 PM | Permalink
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Comments
I disagree. Of course any football player is at risk for serious injury, so it isn't much of a stretch to imagine Tebow will be one of those players. However, I suggest that Tebow because of how he runs is at lower risk than a classic pocket passer or a more agile slashing type runner such as Dixon of Oregon. Tebow does not take many exposed hits in the pocket - if pressured he runs. When he runs he is not cutting and thus exposing his knees and ankles to the type of hits that cause serious joint injuries - injuries which take much longer to heal than simple broken bones - but instead he runs straight ahead leading with his torso. Most of his runs are short yardage carries. There is contact and force, but not like getting hit in the open field with two players going full speed. As you noted he is quite big - pushing 240 now - and very, very strong. I wonder why the punishment he absorbs with that type body is thought to be different and more likely to result in a career ending injury than it was for Emmitt Smith or Jim Brown or any number of other players who have taken a much more sustained pounding in the game over decades than Tebow has or likely will.
That is another point, the idea that his running workload will continue in a sustained or linear fashion is unlikely to be borne out. The running he did this year will not continue in the coming seasons. UF was forced to ride Tebow because they truly had no serviceable tailback to ease the burden. Keston Moore while a hard worker and fine individual is not a quality running back. He was prone to fumbles and had pedestrian speed and elusiveness. Tebow's ground production should diminish greatly during his junior and senior seasons. The Gators anticipated starting tailback from the beginning of this year, Mon Williams, who missed the entire season due to injury is expected back and healthy. UF has also added transfer running back Emmanuel Moody from USC. These two players will shoulder much of the ground game load that fell on Tebow this year.
Again, I understand that in football injuries can strike anyone at anytime, but for the reasons offered above I do not think the risk for Tebow is as great as you seem to fear.
Posted by: Albert | Dec 3, 2007 10:34:28 AM
My vote goes to U. of Hawaii's Colt Brennan. Check out his stats for the UNDEFEATED UH Warriors!
Posted by: Virginia | Dec 2, 2007 7:23:05 PM
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